Watching the gulf this weekend....

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The heat advisory has been canceled Wednesday and rain is on the way! It will be another HOT day ahead, but we are getting very close to the "cooler" weather beginning Thursday!

 

Today: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 102. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast.

Moisture out in the Gulf is moving in, so the chances for rain will increase as the week comes to an end. Katia is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today, but a tropical wave currently moving through the northwestern Caribbean could pose a more immediate threat to the United States.There is a possibility that more than just tropical moisture flows into Texas in the upcoming days. We could be looking at tropical storm formation in the central or western Gulf of Mexico.

The tropical wave in question is rather disorganized at this time, but there is room for development late in the week and into the weekend. Where the future tropical system will head after developing is not set in stone, but a track into Texas is possible. The tropics may yet lend a hand in the Texas drought situation if the tropical wave rolling through the northwestern Caribbean eventually lands in Texas.

The seriousness of the drought and heat in Texas goes without saying, and most of Texas would be willing to take a hit from a tropical storm or minimal hurricane to bring a change. However, there's a general saying, "Droughts often end with floods." With big weather often the case in Texas, the Lone Star State is no exception to this saying. The reason for this is that it simply takes a strong weather system or major pattern change to end a drought. I'm not going to say either is definitely coming to parts of Texas at this point, but there will be a disturbance milling around in the western or central Gulf of Mexico during the second half of this week.

...Enjoy (I think) mdm

Two more days of heat, and then we watch the Gulf!

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Another hot one today as highs climb near 100 again. There will be a few clouds around with a light Southeast wind. But, after these next two days, we will be getting quite a suprise! Rain...rain...and MORE rain!
Later this week and through the weekend looks wet. Could see several inches of badly-needed rainfall. It all depends on what develops from a big slug of moisture making its way north from the Caribbean. Computer models try to develop a tropical depression or even a weak tropical storm in the Gulf by this weekend. We will be watching it close the next couple of days. Temperatures this weekend may not get out of the seventies if we see the kind of rainfall that model-data is forecasting.

First REAL cold front is forecasted to arrive next late Monday into Tuesday. I honestly believe this cold front will end our century mark temps for the rest of the year! We might come close, but I honestly think after today and tomorrow, we're done! I don't know about you, but I thought I would never see the day! Wow...Rain, tropical system and a cold front all in one weekend! Could'nt have asked for anything better! ....enjoy!

Today: Sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Heat index values as high as 101. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.
Tonight: Clear, with a low around 76. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Today: Brutal. But next weekend? Rainy, up to 20 degrees cooler!

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This week’s weather will start out very hot, with a couple of days in the 100s, before giving way to some blessed relief. How much relief? A lot say forecasters with the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service, as by mid-week the high pressure system that’s baked Houston this summer moves out of the area and is replaced by a lot of tropical moisture.The following map shows the GFS model’s estimate of accumulated rainfall for the southeastern United States for the next week. All of a sudden, half of Texas is no longer completely dry.

Some shower and thunderstorms could start as early as Wednesday, but I think main influx of moisture will commence on Thursday. It’s a little too early to tell how much rain we may receive during the first week of September, but since we will be dealing with deep tropical moisture several inches of much needed rain accumulate across parts of the Houston area. In addition to the rain, afternoon temperatures are forecast to decrease to more seasonal levels from September 1-5 and average in between 90 and 95 degrees.

As for the tropics we always become concerned when this type of a flow pattern develops during September as high pressure over the southeast U.S. allows tropical moisture to build up across the western Gulf of Mexico. Current projections indicate winds aloft will be slowly improving late next week, so we will be paying extra close attention to this region for any signs of tropical development.

Nevertheless some models are even predicting the approach of a cool front by next Monday that would bring some even cooler air into Houston.

Today: Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. East wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. East wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

....Enjoy!

Hot...Hot...and HOT! But "change" is coming....

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 We got a welcome surprise yesterday – rain – but don’t get too excited, because the heat (like the South) shall rise again! Hold on to your sun block, we are in for a steamy weekend. The famed (or is it infamous?) Sonoran heat ridge will build into Texas and the Great Plains this weekend, and likely be the main influence in apparent weather across the Lone Star State through most of next week. But by Wednesday, the computer models are showing something distinctly different! This time around, the ridge builds into the Midwest and leaves Texas and the Gulf Coast under easterly flow above a weakness! Tropical disturbances crop up, and some may get close enough to Houston to set off showers and thunderstorms. As an extra added bonus a larger, stronger tropical low may develop in the Gulf of Mexico. With the chance to deliver heavy rainfall when a trough and cold front drop down into the south central U.S. on or just after Labor Day....Just hang in there!

Today: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 107. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 105. Heat index values as high as 112. North wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 96. East wind around 5 mph.

**Hurricane Irene: MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS!

Hurricane Irene is expected to make landfall near Cape Hatteras sometime during the day on Saturday.　 Forecasters said Irene is expected to go into the Carolinas as a borderline Category 3, but will drop to a Category 2 by the time it hits D.C.

As of: 8:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 26

Location: 30.0°N 77.3°W

Max sustained: 110 mph

Moving: N at 14 mph

Min pressure: 945 mb

Hurricane Irene...A major threat to the US East coast!

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TROPICS - Hurricane Irene, which remains a dangerous major hurricane bound for the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then onward toward the New York City and Long Island region. At present its pounding the Bahamas. The track models have come back a bit west, suggesting serious impacts in the New York metro area. The latest GFS model, for example, brings the eye of Irene over Manhattan Island.

CURRENT STATS:

Wind: 115 MPH — Location: 25.5N 76.5W — Movement: NW

Another Hot Day on Tap!

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Another hot day on tap for Southeast TX. Some areas of Southeast Texas, especially to the north of Interstate 10, actually got some rain last night and this morning due to a disturbance in the atmosphere. Through about 7:30 a.m. however accumulations from these rains were fairly scattered. Expect the rains to continue on and off today before the drought resumes in earnest tomorrow.

INTENSE HEAT - Once we get past today, look out. Highs from Friday through Sunday at points in the region north of Interstate 10 could reach as high as 105 degrees. Temperatures as high as 110 further inland, such as in College Station, are also possible.

NEXT WEEK - The really brutal heat should continue through Monday or Tuesday. The mid-range forecast over the next one to two weeks is still hinting at a pattern change during the first week of September as strong upper level high pressure pivots eastward toward the southeast U.S., which is something we have rarely seen this summer. Even though my confidence in the pattern change remains on the low side, I’m encouraged by the new signals which favor an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms during the first week of September.

So all and all I am very optimistic that a change is coming in our jet stream configuration, with a western U.S. ridge complex against a broad 500MB trough covering the area from the Great Plains. After another surge of hot weather into the Mississippi Valley by the end of next week, we may be treated to the spectacle of a cold frontal passage AND a tropical system forming over the Gulf of Mexico before the big holiday!

We shall see.... Brrrr  :-)