Record heat keeps tropical weather away!

**NO TROPICAL WEATHER TO DISCUSS AT THIS TIME**
Will resume once the tropics return active

The tropical wave has dissipated over the Yucatan. There are still a few residual showers but development is unlikely at this point. Remaining moisture will ride the cold front eastward over Florida.

Some more good news: an influx of moisture toward the end of the week could produce a few more showers around here. Data is still coming in from the morning forecast model runs. We do need the rain...

8am Models 6/28/2009

Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 20.7 88.0W — Movement: NW

Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 19.2 86.2W — Movement: NW

The latest computer models still continue to not agree with each other do to the storm moving very slowly NW. Last nights models aimed for the western coast of Florida and this morning, a few have moved back westward. This just goes to show that it is still too early to tell when and where this storm should go. The most promising thing I can say is that YES, it will enter the gulf, but at this time, anyone from Brownsville,TX to the Keys of FL need to be on guard. The next release of models will be about 1:00cdt.

The system is only 30mph now, but reports are saying that once the system crosses the Yucatan, conditions are favorable for development. We could have our first tropical storm as early as tomorrow.

Stay tuned!

POSSIBLE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON!

A situation has developed in the tropics which will need to be watched through the weekend. A large area of convection over the western Caribbean is in a spot where tropical storms like to form this time of year.

The low pressure system will run into the northern Yucatan this weekend then emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. In this location, the upper level flow will be somewhat favorable for development, so we could have a tropical storm on our hands.

I will keep you posted.

INVESTIGATION 93 - COMPUTER MODELS

COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL BE ENTERING THE GULF WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

Wind: 25 MPH — Location: 16.7 83.7W — Movement: NW
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.

POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT?

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCESHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLEFOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

**NO TROPICAL WEATHER TO DISCUSS AT THIS TIME**
Will resume once the tropics return active

Southern Gulf Watch...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ANDBAY OF CAMPECHE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TOOCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS ALOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLIS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICODURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

**NO TROPICAL WEATHER TO DISCUSS AT THIS TIME**

Will resume once the tropics return active

Possibility that the Tropics Turn Active Next Week!

Could the Atlantic be Ready to Heat Up?

Two tropical waves are generating some interest in the Atlantic Basin; however there are no organized tropical systems at this time. There is potential for some development into the Caribbean by early next week.

If upper-level winds tend to weaken more than current computer model forecasts are showing into the northern Caribbean early next week, some organization of the tropical wave along 50 west could occur. There is also a possibility for some development with the system currently over Central America. However, with strong northwest upper-level winds continuing into Monday, the forecast is highly uncertain.

NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE!!

AS THEY SAY, "It only takes one"....

NEW GRAPHICS RELEASED...