RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE FOR SE TX AND LOUISIANA

Whats left of TS Anna should be moving onshore from Louisiana and the panhandle of FL this coming Friday and Saturday. Anna has deminished and now is nothing more than a tropical low. Basically just rain and thunderstorms.

Bill continues to gain strength. Winds are now at 135 mph. Nothing to worry about. It will more than likely make the northward turn and stay in the Atlantic. What we call a "fish storm".

Other than that, nothing else seems to be brewing yet. We still have not reached our peak in the season, so do not let your guard down. You saw how quickly Claudette formed and how close to shore.

Bring your umbrellas this weekend!

TEXAS TO GET HIT BY TROPICAL WAVE!

Beginning Sunday through Tuesday looks like we will get a hit by the tropical wave currently in the Caribbean. We will need to watch this. If it were to stay just a wave, we would see several inches of rain and slow breezy conditions. Some models are forecasting it to strengthen once it reaches the Gulf. Pay close attention this weekend!

The front-running feature, a tropical wave, will cross Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica and part of South Florida Friday into Friday night with locally drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms. This weekend, that feature will get into the Gulf of Mexico.

In all cases, the systems will move over very warm waters, which would contribute to development. It is possible by early next week that we have as many as three named Atlantic Basin systems: Ana, Bill and Claudette in operation at the same time.

T.D. Two still there, but here's what really concerns me.....

The season's second tropical depression may or may not develop into the Atlantic's first named storm of 2009, but what seems increasingly likely is that a wave behind the system will become the season's first real threat.

T.D. 2, which probably will become Ana today, seems unlikely to develop beyond tropical storm strength, and nearly all the computer models indicate that it more than likely will miss the Caribbean and probably turn northward before approaching the United States.
If it survives a more hostile shear environment in a few days and doesn't turn northward, then we'll need to talk about it.

However, the bigger concern in my mind is what's behind the tropical depression, a vigorous tropical wave that just moved off Africa. I mentioned this wave Monday morning, and the computer models have continued to develop it into a significant threat.
For example, the GFS global model brings a large hurricane to the western edge of Puerto Rico next Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, the European model has the same tropical wave developing into a hurricane and, by next Thursday evening, has the wave past Puerto Rico.

Let me strongly caution you that model runs seven days in advance are highly speculative and low on confidence. However, the GFS has been consistent with this for a number of runs in a row, and it seems plausible that by early next week we'll be talking about a significant storm -- Bill, perhaps? -- approaching the Caribbean.

10am Update on TD #2

Wind: 35 MPH — Location: 14.6N 32.4W — Movement: W

THE TROPICS HAVE BEGUN..MEET TD #2

The small swirl of clouds we've been tracking in the deep tropics could become the first named storm of the season.

This is the second tropical depression to form this hurricane season, the first being a small storm off the east coast in late May. That storm was not given a name because it never fully developed into a tropical storm with closed circulation and winds 39 mph or stronger.This official forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates TD#2 could strengthen into a tropical storm named Ana within 24 hours. None of the computer models suggest this storm will develop into a hurricane.

The long-range models are still showing another potential storm developing later this week, that could become a powerful tropical cyclone. Of course, the exact track is highly uncertain; this storm hasn't even developed yet. But the Global Forecast System model depicts a storm developing in the far eastern Atlantic within 48 hours and moving into the Caribbean Sea, toward the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week.