10am - 2pm @ George R Brown Convention Center
Friday, May 29, 2009
TD1 - UPDATE 5/29/2009
The first tropical depression of the 2009 season continues to be no real threat to any land as it moves northeastward and farther out to sea. This system is producing sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts. There is limited thunderstorm activity currently associated with Tropical Depression 1, but no strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours. Tropical Depression 1 is will increase in speed toward the northeast today and is expected to become extratropical by Saturday morning.
HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINS JUNE 1ST!! BE PREPARED.....
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Possible Development on the East Coast
NHC is currently watching a possible development along the northern east coast. Less than a 30% chance of development. Models bring the system back toward the Atlantic.
**No threat to the Gulf of Mexico what so ever**
No other tropical systems to discuss at this time. This will probably be the first and last update for this system.
**No threat to the Gulf of Mexico what so ever**
No other tropical systems to discuss at this time. This will probably be the first and last update for this system.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Wet today for SETX
60% chance of storms today (May 24) for SETX region....
At this time, no tropical development to report. Next update will resume as Hurricane season begins on June 1st...
Until then, have a safe and happy Memorial weekend...
Friday, May 22, 2009
Will this be Ana?
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 27.1 87.3W — Movement: N
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATEDWITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OFMEXICO HAVE INCREASED TODAY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMIS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVEHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE LOW TOMORROW...IFNECESSARY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OFTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHESTHE COAST ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ANDOCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THENORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SETX....The only effects we will see here is about a 60% chance of showers Saturday into Sunday. Rain chances begin to decrease by Memorial Day. Nothing tropical for our location. According to the computer models, they are predicting landfall around the New Orleans area.
Low Pressure In The Gulf....
A low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico is moving slowly to the west-northwest and should move inland over southeast Louisiana Saturday evening. With this low getting closer, a few showers will be possible today with the best coverage of showers over the weekend.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
NOAA Forecasts 9 To 14 Tropical Storms
Forecasters Predict 4 To 7 HurricanesWASHINGTON -- Hurricanes will strike the United States this season and Americans must be prepared, federal forecasters said Thursday. They predicted nine to 14 named tropical storms this year.
Current projections call for a near normal year for hurricanes, Gerry Bell, lead Atlantic hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said at a briefing. The named storms are expected to include 4 to 7 hurricanes of which 1 to 3 are likely to be major storms.
"Hurricane season is upon us. We need to communicate down to the personal level, preparedness, now is the time," said National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read.
Have a plan and follow it, he said, waiting to see if the forecast changes can mean life or death.
Added Craig Fugate, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency: "Hurricanes will make landfall in the United States, hurricanes will destroy homes, people need to heed the preparedness message and be ready to act,"
And Commerce Secretary Gary Locke noted that, "Today, more than 35 million Americans live in regions most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes."
Regardless of the total number of storms, Bell pointed out that "it only takes one to make it a very bad season."
People in hurricane-prone areas need to think about how these storms and their flooding might affect their lives, and to have a hurricane preparedness plan in place before the season begins, he said.
Hurricane season officially starts June 1. Last year there were 16 named storms, of which 8 grew into hurricanes and 5 were major. About 1,000 people lost their lives, mostly in flash flooding in the Caribbean.
NOAA's forecast comes just days after the Department of Homeland Security urged Americans to be prepared for hurricane season.
Competing climate factors complicate the forecast, Bell noted.
Raising the possibility of a busy season are an ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995, which includes enhanced rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear.
Rain chances increases for Saturday, Sunday and Memorial Day!!
The storm will spread its heaviest rain and thunderstorms over New Orleans, Mobile and Pensacola Friday into Saturday. Florida, however, will remain unsettled through the long Memorial Day holiday weekend.The storm is currently non-tropical.
- While not expected, it is not out of the question that the storm could become subtropical and acquire a name over the Gulf of Mexico the next few days.
As of right now, SETX rain chances will be 20% Friday, 40% Saturday, 50% Sunday and Memorial Day...
*Note...You can click on pics to enlarge!!
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
DOING THE WESTWARD CRAWL
Low pressure system continues to drift ever so slowly westward. At this point in time it does not look like it will gain strength into anything tropical. It will begin to affect the Southeast Texas coastal waters sometime Saturday through Memorial Day this weekend. Right now we are expected to have only a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain for our area with breezy conditions at 15 to 20 mph.As you all are aware, because this system will be staying over the Gulf waters, their is always potential for strengthening, but for this system it is highly unlikley do to the temp of the Gulf waters not reaching the warmth just yet to support any type of major system forming.
I will be monitoring the system as it approaches the Texas Gulf Coast.
Next update will be: 0700cdt 05212009
CATEGORY OF A STORM
Category One Hurricane:Sustained winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Damaging winds are expected. Some damage to building structures could occur, primarily to unanchored mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction). Some damage is likely to poorly constructed signs. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Numerous large branches of healthy trees will snap. Some trees will be uprooted, especially where the ground is saturated. Many areas will experience power outages with some downed power poles. Hurricane Cindy (pdf) (2005, 75 mph winds at landfall in Louisiana) and Hurricane Gaston (2004, 75 mph winds at landfall in South Carolina) are examples of Category One hurricanes at landfall.
Category Two Hurricane:
Sustained winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Very strong winds will produce widespread damage. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings will occur. Considerable damage to mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs is likely. A number of glass windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death.. Numerous large branches will break. Many trees will be uprooted or snapped. Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in widespread power outages that could last a few to several days. Hurricane Erin (1995, 100 mph at landfall in northwest Florida) and Hurricane Isabel (2003, 105 mph at landfall in North Carolina) are examples of Category Two hurricanes at landfall.
Sustained winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Very strong winds will produce widespread damage. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings will occur. Considerable damage to mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs is likely. A number of glass windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death.. Numerous large branches will break. Many trees will be uprooted or snapped. Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in widespread power outages that could last a few to several days. Hurricane Erin (1995, 100 mph at landfall in northwest Florida) and Hurricane Isabel (2003, 105 mph at landfall in North Carolina) are examples of Category Two hurricanes at landfall.
Category Three Hurricane:
Sustained winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Dangerous winds will cause extensive damage. Some structural damage to houses and buildings will occur with a minor amount of wall failures. Mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Many windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Hurricane Rita (pdf) (2005, 115 mph landfall in east Texas/Louisiana) and Hurricane Jeanne (2004, 120 mph landfall in southeast Florida) are examples of Category Three hurricanes at landfall.
Sustained winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Dangerous winds will cause extensive damage. Some structural damage to houses and buildings will occur with a minor amount of wall failures. Mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Many windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Hurricane Rita (pdf) (2005, 115 mph landfall in east Texas/Louisiana) and Hurricane Jeanne (2004, 120 mph landfall in southeast Florida) are examples of Category Three hurricanes at landfall.
Category Four Hurricane:
Sustained winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds causing devastating damage are expected. Some wall failures with some complete roof structure failures on houses will occur. All signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (primarily pre-1994 construction). Extensive damage to doors and windows is likely. Numerous windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Windborne debris will cause extensive damage and persons struck by the wind-blown debris will be injured or killed. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Fallen trees could cut off residential areas for days to weeks. Electricity will be unavailable for weeks after the hurricane passes. Hurricane Charley (2004, 145 mph at landfall in southwest Florida) and Hurricane Hugo (1989, 140 mph at landfall in South Carolina) are examples of Category Four hurricanes at landfall.
Sustained winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds causing devastating damage are expected. Some wall failures with some complete roof structure failures on houses will occur. All signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (primarily pre-1994 construction). Extensive damage to doors and windows is likely. Numerous windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Windborne debris will cause extensive damage and persons struck by the wind-blown debris will be injured or killed. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Fallen trees could cut off residential areas for days to weeks. Electricity will be unavailable for weeks after the hurricane passes. Hurricane Charley (2004, 145 mph at landfall in southwest Florida) and Hurricane Hugo (1989, 140 mph at landfall in South Carolina) are examples of Category Four hurricanes at landfall.
Category Five Hurricane:
Sustained winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Catastrophic damage is expected. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings will occur. Some complete building failures with small buildings blown over or away are likely. All signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (built in any year). Severe and extensive window and door damage will occur. Nearly all windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Severe injury or death is likely for persons struck by wind-blown debris. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Hurricane Camille (pdf) (1969, 190 mph at landfall in Mississippi) and Hurricane Andrew (1992, 165 mph at landfall in Southeast Florida) are examples of Category Five hurricanes at landfall.
Sustained winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Catastrophic damage is expected. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings will occur. Some complete building failures with small buildings blown over or away are likely. All signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (built in any year). Severe and extensive window and door damage will occur. Nearly all windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Severe injury or death is likely for persons struck by wind-blown debris. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Hurricane Camille (pdf) (1969, 190 mph at landfall in Mississippi) and Hurricane Andrew (1992, 165 mph at landfall in Southeast Florida) are examples of Category Five hurricanes at landfall.
CHECK OUT THIS INTER-ACTIVE HURRICANE TRACKING CHART
Storm to Impact Other Southerners
Florida will not be the only state that the potent storm impacts in the upcoming days. The high pressure that kept the rest of the South dry on Tuesday and will continue to do so today will depart on Thursday. The door will then be opened for moisture to pour northward, allowing thunderstorms to erupt.The thunderstorms will spread over South Carolina and the central Gulf Coast states on Thursday, then more Western on Friday. Most of the thunderstorms will wait until the afternoon to ignite. The unsettled weather will expand from the Tennessee Valley to Texas on Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorms along the central Gulf Coast may become more numerous this day as the storm approaches. Winds will be nothing major, but breezy for several days. 30-35 mph as this low rides it's course.
Will the Storm Get Named?
The storm that will continue to pound Florida today is churning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With the official start of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season right around the corner, it cannot be ruled out that the storm gains at least some tropical characteristics.
A storm that becomes partially tropical is classified as a subtropical system. It acquires a name off the official tropical storm list when its maximum sustained winds reach or exceed 39 mph. Ana would be assigned to the first named system in the Atlantic Basin this year.
While it cannot be ruled out, I am not forecasting the storm to gain tropical characteristics. The storm is currently in an environment where its center is colder than its surroundings. The opposite should take place within the structure of a hurricane. The water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico, well away from land, would support warming within the storm's center. The system, however, will likely not spend enough time over this warm water, rather half on and half off.
A storm that becomes partially tropical is classified as a subtropical system. It acquires a name off the official tropical storm list when its maximum sustained winds reach or exceed 39 mph. Ana would be assigned to the first named system in the Atlantic Basin this year.
While it cannot be ruled out, I am not forecasting the storm to gain tropical characteristics. The storm is currently in an environment where its center is colder than its surroundings. The opposite should take place within the structure of a hurricane. The water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico, well away from land, would support warming within the storm's center. The system, however, will likely not spend enough time over this warm water, rather half on and half off.
Next update: 1400cdt 5202009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
(Disturbance 90) Latest Computer Models
Latest computer models for tropical disturbance 90. System still expected to cross Florida and head towards the Gulf of Mexico later this week. I will monitor the system and keep you updated as more info arrives.Next update will be 0700 cdt 5/20/2009
Are YOU ready for hurricane season? The tropics are!!
Low pressure at the tip of Florida that is expected to turn into a sub-tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. If you notice the arrow, they are expecting it to drift Westward. We will have to keep our eyes on this, but not expected to become anything major as of yet. We will no more by Wed-Thurs.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, May 18th, 2009
Once this low pressure gets in to the Gulf, it should track westward and we'll just have to wait and see if it can gather enough tropical characteristics to be worthy of a name. That is several days away and the computer guidance offers differing solutions. It could be wet and stormy across the north/northwestern Gulf Coast states for much of the week ahead.
NOW IS THE TIME TO START PREPARING.......
HAPPY HURRICANE SEASON EVERYONE!!!
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, May 18th, 2009
Once this low pressure gets in to the Gulf, it should track westward and we'll just have to wait and see if it can gather enough tropical characteristics to be worthy of a name. That is several days away and the computer guidance offers differing solutions. It could be wet and stormy across the north/northwestern Gulf Coast states for much of the week ahead.
NOW IS THE TIME TO START PREPARING.......
HAPPY HURRICANE SEASON EVERYONE!!!
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