GET READY FOR MORE RAIN!

Meteorologists remain concerned about the threat of more flooding rain next week in hard-hit areas of eastern Texas and Louisiana. Sunshine will prevail most days through Saturday over the troubled areas, and in much of the Southeast states for that matter.There are continuing signs that a tropical low pressure area will further develop in the western Gulf of Mexico late in the week. From there, steering winds could bring that system and its drenching rainfall northward into Texas /Louisiana Sunday.

That rainfall would then continue to spread across the lower Mississippi Valley early next week.Rainfall on the saturated ground would almost immediately cause small streams to rise and low-lying areas to flood. How much rain falls would determine the magnitude of new rises in water levels on the major rivers.The system in the western Gulf should not be confused with Tropical Storm Ida in the western Caribbean. That separate feature could bring flooding rain to parts of Central America over the next several days. Even after numerous days of dry weather, several rivers from eastern Texas and Louisiana to Illinois are expected to remain above flood stage by the time the tropical rain arrives.

2009-2010 Winter Forecast Released!

The South

The track this year right along the Eastern Seaboard would put the major cities on the cold, wintry side of the storms. Areas form Atlanta to Charlotte could have several snowstorms this year, which is something that this region has not seen in a while.The Interstate 20 corridor from Dallas to Atlanta will be a strike zone for ice and snow, given the storm track and proximity to cold air. By the end of the winter, people from Houston to the Carolinas could say "Wow, we had snow this year!"

Could this be TROUBLE?

NWS has now recognized this area for concern. Low pressure area will move off the coast tonight close to Brownsville. When this happens we will have to watch this very closely as this area of concern is still headed northward toward the eastern Texas coast. We will have a better handle on this come Friday when this system finally moves out over the water.

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SOGGY WEEKEND AHEAD!

GET READY FOR A WET ONE!

Today will mark another unsettled day across the South. Drenching showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over Texas starting Friday as a new storm takes shape.The storm set to impact the Texas is being monitored for tropical development. Whether the system takes shape over land or water will determine if tropical formation is possible.

Regardless of tropical development, the storm should slowly spread drenching showers and thunderstorms across Eastern Texas Friday into the weekend. Some of the thunderstorms will unleash torrential downpours. Short-term flooding problems could result, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

You Wanna Bet?

I have a feeling this system in the southern Gulf will form into something? It is currently moving north for the Texas coast. I bet within the next few days, this system will form into "something" whether is be a Disturbance, Tropical Storm and even a minimal Hurricane and increase our rain chances starting on Thurs. I am taking a chance and reporting this before ANY media does. Lets see if I am right!

RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE FOR SE TX AND LOUISIANA

Whats left of TS Anna should be moving onshore from Louisiana and the panhandle of FL this coming Friday and Saturday. Anna has deminished and now is nothing more than a tropical low. Basically just rain and thunderstorms.

Bill continues to gain strength. Winds are now at 135 mph. Nothing to worry about. It will more than likely make the northward turn and stay in the Atlantic. What we call a "fish storm".

Other than that, nothing else seems to be brewing yet. We still have not reached our peak in the season, so do not let your guard down. You saw how quickly Claudette formed and how close to shore.

Bring your umbrellas this weekend!

TEXAS TO GET HIT BY TROPICAL WAVE!

Beginning Sunday through Tuesday looks like we will get a hit by the tropical wave currently in the Caribbean. We will need to watch this. If it were to stay just a wave, we would see several inches of rain and slow breezy conditions. Some models are forecasting it to strengthen once it reaches the Gulf. Pay close attention this weekend!

The front-running feature, a tropical wave, will cross Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica and part of South Florida Friday into Friday night with locally drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms. This weekend, that feature will get into the Gulf of Mexico.

In all cases, the systems will move over very warm waters, which would contribute to development. It is possible by early next week that we have as many as three named Atlantic Basin systems: Ana, Bill and Claudette in operation at the same time.

T.D. Two still there, but here's what really concerns me.....

The season's second tropical depression may or may not develop into the Atlantic's first named storm of 2009, but what seems increasingly likely is that a wave behind the system will become the season's first real threat.

T.D. 2, which probably will become Ana today, seems unlikely to develop beyond tropical storm strength, and nearly all the computer models indicate that it more than likely will miss the Caribbean and probably turn northward before approaching the United States.
If it survives a more hostile shear environment in a few days and doesn't turn northward, then we'll need to talk about it.

However, the bigger concern in my mind is what's behind the tropical depression, a vigorous tropical wave that just moved off Africa. I mentioned this wave Monday morning, and the computer models have continued to develop it into a significant threat.
For example, the GFS global model brings a large hurricane to the western edge of Puerto Rico next Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, the European model has the same tropical wave developing into a hurricane and, by next Thursday evening, has the wave past Puerto Rico.

Let me strongly caution you that model runs seven days in advance are highly speculative and low on confidence. However, the GFS has been consistent with this for a number of runs in a row, and it seems plausible that by early next week we'll be talking about a significant storm -- Bill, perhaps? -- approaching the Caribbean.

10am Update on TD #2

Wind: 35 MPH — Location: 14.6N 32.4W — Movement: W

THE TROPICS HAVE BEGUN..MEET TD #2

The small swirl of clouds we've been tracking in the deep tropics could become the first named storm of the season.

This is the second tropical depression to form this hurricane season, the first being a small storm off the east coast in late May. That storm was not given a name because it never fully developed into a tropical storm with closed circulation and winds 39 mph or stronger.This official forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates TD#2 could strengthen into a tropical storm named Ana within 24 hours. None of the computer models suggest this storm will develop into a hurricane.

The long-range models are still showing another potential storm developing later this week, that could become a powerful tropical cyclone. Of course, the exact track is highly uncertain; this storm hasn't even developed yet. But the Global Forecast System model depicts a storm developing in the far eastern Atlantic within 48 hours and moving into the Caribbean Sea, toward the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week.

Where are the Tropics?

Hello everyone....Sorry there has not been any updates in over a month. This 2009 hurricane season has started off VERY slow. We are getting ready to move in to August with not even one single stormed named. Nothing. No depression, no tropical storm and especially no hurricane.

August - Sept is usually our busiest time of year for things to heat up and get started. Just because nothing has formed does NOT mean it will be a slow or quiet year. The next 60 days we will really have to watch though. Stay tuned!

**NO TROPICAL WEATHER TO DISCUSS AT THIS TIME**Will resume once the tropics return active

Record heat keeps tropical weather away!

**NO TROPICAL WEATHER TO DISCUSS AT THIS TIME**
Will resume once the tropics return active

The tropical wave has dissipated over the Yucatan. There are still a few residual showers but development is unlikely at this point. Remaining moisture will ride the cold front eastward over Florida.

Some more good news: an influx of moisture toward the end of the week could produce a few more showers around here. Data is still coming in from the morning forecast model runs. We do need the rain...

8am Models 6/28/2009

Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 20.7 88.0W — Movement: NW

Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 19.2 86.2W — Movement: NW

The latest computer models still continue to not agree with each other do to the storm moving very slowly NW. Last nights models aimed for the western coast of Florida and this morning, a few have moved back westward. This just goes to show that it is still too early to tell when and where this storm should go. The most promising thing I can say is that YES, it will enter the gulf, but at this time, anyone from Brownsville,TX to the Keys of FL need to be on guard. The next release of models will be about 1:00cdt.

The system is only 30mph now, but reports are saying that once the system crosses the Yucatan, conditions are favorable for development. We could have our first tropical storm as early as tomorrow.

Stay tuned!

POSSIBLE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON!

A situation has developed in the tropics which will need to be watched through the weekend. A large area of convection over the western Caribbean is in a spot where tropical storms like to form this time of year.

The low pressure system will run into the northern Yucatan this weekend then emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. In this location, the upper level flow will be somewhat favorable for development, so we could have a tropical storm on our hands.

I will keep you posted.

INVESTIGATION 93 - COMPUTER MODELS

COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL BE ENTERING THE GULF WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

Wind: 25 MPH — Location: 16.7 83.7W — Movement: NW
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.

POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT?

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCESHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLEFOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

**NO TROPICAL WEATHER TO DISCUSS AT THIS TIME**
Will resume once the tropics return active

Southern Gulf Watch...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ANDBAY OF CAMPECHE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TOOCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS ALOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLIS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICODURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

**NO TROPICAL WEATHER TO DISCUSS AT THIS TIME**

Will resume once the tropics return active

Possibility that the Tropics Turn Active Next Week!

Could the Atlantic be Ready to Heat Up?

Two tropical waves are generating some interest in the Atlantic Basin; however there are no organized tropical systems at this time. There is potential for some development into the Caribbean by early next week.

If upper-level winds tend to weaken more than current computer model forecasts are showing into the northern Caribbean early next week, some organization of the tropical wave along 50 west could occur. There is also a possibility for some development with the system currently over Central America. However, with strong northwest upper-level winds continuing into Monday, the forecast is highly uncertain.

NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE!!

AS THEY SAY, "It only takes one"....

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SATURDAY, MAY 30TH

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TD1 - UPDATE 5/29/2009

The first tropical depression of the 2009 season continues to be no real threat to any land as it moves northeastward and farther out to sea. This system is producing sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts. There is limited thunderstorm activity currently associated with Tropical Depression 1, but no strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours. Tropical Depression 1 is will increase in speed toward the northeast today and is expected to become extratropical by Saturday morning.

HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINS JUNE 1ST!! BE PREPARED.....

Possible Development on the East Coast

NHC is currently watching a possible development along the northern east coast. Less than a 30% chance of development. Models bring the system back toward the Atlantic.

**No threat to the Gulf of Mexico what so ever**

No other tropical systems to discuss at this time. This will probably be the first and last update for this system.

**NO TROPICAL WEATHER TO DISCUSS AT THIS TIME**

HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE 1ST! BE PREPARED!

Wet today for SETX

60% chance of storms today (May 24) for SETX region....

At this time, no tropical development to report. Next update will resume as Hurricane season begins on June 1st...

Until then, have a safe and happy Memorial weekend...

Will this be Ana?

Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 27.1 87.3W — Movement: N

This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATEDWITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OFMEXICO HAVE INCREASED TODAY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMIS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVEHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE LOW TOMORROW...IFNECESSARY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OFTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHESTHE COAST ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ANDOCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THENORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SETX....The only effects we will see here is about a 60% chance of showers Saturday into Sunday. Rain chances begin to decrease by Memorial Day. Nothing tropical for our location. According to the computer models, they are predicting landfall around the New Orleans area.

Low Pressure In The Gulf....

A low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico is moving slowly to the west-northwest and should move inland over southeast Louisiana Saturday evening. With this low getting closer, a few showers will be possible today with the best coverage of showers over the weekend.

NOAA Forecasts 9 To 14 Tropical Storms

Forecasters Predict 4 To 7 Hurricanes

WASHINGTON -- Hurricanes will strike the United States this season and Americans must be prepared, federal forecasters said Thursday. They predicted nine to 14 named tropical storms this year.

Current projections call for a near normal year for hurricanes, Gerry Bell, lead Atlantic hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said at a briefing. The named storms are expected to include 4 to 7 hurricanes of which 1 to 3 are likely to be major storms.

"Hurricane season is upon us. We need to communicate down to the personal level, preparedness, now is the time," said National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read.

Have a plan and follow it, he said, waiting to see if the forecast changes can mean life or death.

Added Craig Fugate, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency: "Hurricanes will make landfall in the United States, hurricanes will destroy homes, people need to heed the preparedness message and be ready to act,"

And Commerce Secretary Gary Locke noted that, "Today, more than 35 million Americans live in regions most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes."

Regardless of the total number of storms, Bell pointed out that "it only takes one to make it a very bad season."

People in hurricane-prone areas need to think about how these storms and their flooding might affect their lives, and to have a hurricane preparedness plan in place before the season begins, he said.

Hurricane season officially starts June 1. Last year there were 16 named storms, of which 8 grew into hurricanes and 5 were major. About 1,000 people lost their lives, mostly in flash flooding in the Caribbean.

NOAA's forecast comes just days after the Department of Homeland Security urged Americans to be prepared for hurricane season.

Competing climate factors complicate the forecast, Bell noted.

Raising the possibility of a busy season are an ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995, which includes enhanced rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear.

Rain chances increases for Saturday, Sunday and Memorial Day!!

The storm will spread its heaviest rain and thunderstorms over New Orleans, Mobile and Pensacola Friday into Saturday. Florida, however, will remain unsettled through the long Memorial Day holiday weekend.The storm is currently non-tropical.

• While not expected, it is not out of the question that the storm could become subtropical and acquire a name over the Gulf of Mexico the next few days.

As of right now, SETX rain chances will be 20% Friday, 40% Saturday, 50% Sunday and Memorial Day...

*Note...You can click on pics to enlarge!!

DOING THE WESTWARD CRAWL

Low pressure system continues to drift ever so slowly westward. At this point in time it does not look like it will gain strength into anything tropical. It will begin to affect the Southeast Texas coastal waters sometime Saturday through Memorial Day this weekend. Right now we are expected to have only a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain for our area with breezy conditions at 15 to 20 mph.

As you all are aware, because this system will be staying over the Gulf waters, their is always potential for strengthening, but for this system it is highly unlikley do to the temp of the Gulf waters not reaching the warmth just yet to support any type of major system forming.

I will be monitoring the system as it approaches the Texas Gulf Coast.

Next update will be: 0700cdt 05212009

2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Names

CATEGORY OF A STORM

Category One Hurricane:
Sustained winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Damaging winds are expected. Some damage to building structures could occur, primarily to unanchored mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction). Some damage is likely to poorly constructed signs. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Numerous large branches of healthy trees will snap. Some trees will be uprooted, especially where the ground is saturated. Many areas will experience power outages with some downed power poles. Hurricane Cindy (pdf) (2005, 75 mph winds at landfall in Louisiana) and Hurricane Gaston (2004, 75 mph winds at landfall in South Carolina) are examples of Category One hurricanes at landfall.

Category Two Hurricane:
Sustained winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Very strong winds will produce widespread damage. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings will occur. Considerable damage to mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs is likely. A number of glass windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Loose outdoor items will become projectiles, causing additional damage. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death.. Numerous large branches will break. Many trees will be uprooted or snapped. Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in widespread power outages that could last a few to several days. Hurricane Erin (1995, 100 mph at landfall in northwest Florida) and Hurricane Isabel (2003, 105 mph at landfall in North Carolina) are examples of Category Two hurricanes at landfall.

Category Three Hurricane:
Sustained winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Dangerous winds will cause extensive damage. Some structural damage to houses and buildings will occur with a minor amount of wall failures. Mobile homes (mainly pre-1994 construction) and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Many windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Hurricane Rita (pdf) (2005, 115 mph landfall in east Texas/Louisiana) and Hurricane Jeanne (2004, 120 mph landfall in southeast Florida) are examples of Category Three hurricanes at landfall.

Category Four Hurricane:
Sustained winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Extremely dangerous winds causing devastating damage are expected. Some wall failures with some complete roof structure failures on houses will occur. All signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (primarily pre-1994 construction). Extensive damage to doors and windows is likely. Numerous windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Windborne debris will cause extensive damage and persons struck by the wind-blown debris will be injured or killed. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Fallen trees could cut off residential areas for days to weeks. Electricity will be unavailable for weeks after the hurricane passes. Hurricane Charley (2004, 145 mph at landfall in southwest Florida) and Hurricane Hugo (1989, 140 mph at landfall in South Carolina) are examples of Category Four hurricanes at landfall.

Category Five Hurricane:
Sustained winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Catastrophic damage is expected. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings will occur. Some complete building failures with small buildings blown over or away are likely. All signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes (built in any year). Severe and extensive window and door damage will occur. Nearly all windows in high rise buildings will be dislodged and become airborne. Severe injury or death is likely for persons struck by wind-blown debris. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Hurricane Camille (pdf) (1969, 190 mph at landfall in Mississippi) and Hurricane Andrew (1992, 165 mph at landfall in Southeast Florida) are examples of Category Five hurricanes at landfall.

CHECK OUT THIS INTER-ACTIVE HURRICANE TRACKING CHART

http://www.stormpulse.com/